When most people think of solar energy, they see flat panels on a
roof.
They don't think about thin film. They don't see it.
This is one of the many advantages of CIGS and other thin
film solar technologies. So what if its efficiency is half that of
a panel? It conforms to the shape of the place where it lays.
Thin film can also be productized in ways no panel can. It can be
turned into something retailers can sell or bloggers will drool over. Try doing that with a panel.
With the exception of the 800-pound Gorilla First
Solar Inc (FSLR), it's true
that we're still measuring the annual supply from these manufacturers
in megawatts, figures utility companies can't (and often don't want to)
hear, except as window-dressing or a source of subsidies.
But changing that equation is as simple as getting the right product
into mass production. (Skeptics should listen again to the words of
former DEC CEO Ken Olsen. 'There is
no reason for any individual to have a computer in his home.')
Personally I think I've seen the future and it's thin.
Copper indium gallium (di)selenide is also not the only possible formula for a thin film. Sharp
(SHCAY.PK) is looking at amorphous silicon, despite Applied
Materials' (AMAT) failure with it.
Maybe they will succeed, and maybe they'll fail too. The search for new
materials will go on. (Like the man told Dustin Hoffman in The
Graduate, 'One word. Plastics.')
There is a ton of competition in this space. Analysts at Greentech
Media recently wrote a list of just CIGS thin film companies for a
story on one of them. Want to hear it? Solar Frontier, Q-Cells
(QCLSF.PK), Solyndra,
SoloPower, MiaSolé, Wuerth Solar, Stion, GSP, Nanosolar. They can't all be wrong, can they?
And is that an exhaustive list? Far from it. Venture capitalists are
funding more all the time, often on the promise of greater efficiency.
While analysts at Greentech Media are very positive about companies
like AQT Solar
that can get into production fast and cheap, or SoloPower, with its claims of UL Labs approval,
it's clear to me that this is the first mile of a corporate marathon.
Put it this way. How many PC makers from the late 1970s can you
name? (Other than Apple.) In terms of this market, I don't even think
we're at 1977 yet.
There are just so many directions in which improvement can happen
with thin films. Efficiency, production cost, durability, materials
cost, etc. It's true that the total power being supplied by CIGS right
now looks pathetic next to standard panels, but the advantages are just
too obvious.
That's why companies like Dow Chemical and (now) Intel
are putting cash into the space. Dow likes the idea of solar systems
that go on with the roof, that in fact are the roof. Intel likes Sulfurcell, a German company that claims (as
others do) that thin films can be as efficient as panels.
The way to look at this is not through the eyes of current
production, or short-term profits. It's about the technologies behind
the curtain, the new materials and techniques that can get that to
market. A good venture capitalist will invest in 10 plays knowing only
three will ever bring him any return, but in hopes that 1 of those
three will be huge. That's the right attitude to have.
What does it mean when every roof, every wall, every tent
and bleach blanket can be delivering solar power to its owner?
Remember, electronics and many electrical devices are requiring
less-and-less power every year.
More to the point, what does it mean to an industry that depends on
long-term contracts for construction of panel systems if the wall can
deliver just as much power for the cost of wallpapering? Or painting?
That's a silly question today, but one that the people in this business
should probably start thinking about.
Dana
Blankenhorn first
covered the energy industries in 1978 with the
Houston Business Journal. He returned last month after a short 29 year
hiatus because it's the best business story of our time. In between he
covered PCs, the Internet, e-commerce, open source, the Internet of
Things and Moore's Law. It's the application of the last to harvesting
the energy all around us he's most excited about. He lives in Atlanta.
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