Minggu, 06 Februari 2011

'The Matrix 4' and '5': Are the Rumors True?

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Even though this may well turn out to be just another cleverly orchestrated Keanu Reeves meme, the Internet is abuzz today with reports that the actor revealed to a group of London students that two more installments in 'The Matrix' franchise may be on the way -- in 3D, no less.



Now, before you start annoying all your friends by whipping out that lame 'There is no spoon' quote again, consider that the original source -- an anonymous Ain't It Cool News reader going by 'El-Nino' -- is questionable to the extreme and that Entertainment Weekly has already debunked the news. Still, we have to wonder if there isn't something to the rumors, given that the 'Matrix' franchise raked in more than $1.5 billion.



But after the debacles that were 2003's 'The Matrix Reloaded' and 'The Matrix Revolutions,' the two disjointed follow-ups to the truly groundbreaking 1999 original, the biggest question may be whether Reeves and the Wachowski brothers should expect anyone to care.



So, what do you think of this very intriguing and probably not true development? While you're contemplating, check our our pick for the best moment from 'The Matrix' trilogy below, and if you dare, click here to feast your eyes on the worst.

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Sundance 2011 Full Roundup: All Our Reviews, Interviews and More

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You might not have been able to tell because we're really good at what we do (wink, wink), but a big film festival like Sundance takes a lot of effort to cover. Thanks to all the team members who contributed, and thanks to YOU for making us one of your favorite film-festival-coverage destinations!



But now we're done (until next January, anyway). So here's all of our 2011 Sundance output in one handy-dandy location.



Interviews



... and gathered together here are Josh Leonard, Jess Weixler and Mark Webber of 'The Lie.'



Read on for all our reviews, features, and cinematical miscellania!

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Renewable Energy and Cleantech Mutual Funds and ETFs: Does Tax Efficiency Matter?

Alternative Energy and Climate Change Mutual Funds, Part VI



Tom Konrad CFA



My recent article, In
Clean
Energy,
Active
Management
Pays
, started a bit of a
controversy. Rafael Coven, the Index Manager for The Cleantech
Index (^CTIUS), which is the index behind the Powershares
Cleantech Portfolio (PZD)
, left
a
comment
on
Barrons
and sent me an email saying, 'Your
comparison of funds and ETFs ignores the tax efficiency differences
which are very significant
.'



Rafael is right that it's important for many investors to consider
taxes before making an investment decision, and that ETFs
are
often
more
tax
efficient
than
mutual funds
. But are the
differences in the particular case of clean energy funds really "very
significant"? I had my doubts, so I decided to look at the
numbers and find out.



Why ETFs are Usually More Tax Efficient



ETFs are generally considered more tax efficient because they make
fewer capital gains distributions. A mutual fund or ETF that
sells a position at a profit is required by law to return a prorata
share of any net capital gains to the fund's investors every
year. Positions held less than a year produce short term capital
gains, while positions held more than a year produce long term capital
gains. When these gains are returned to investors, they are
taxable as short or long term capital gains, regardless of whether the
funds are reinvested.



In general, actively managed mutual funds trade much more often than
ETFs, which passively track an index. While many mutual funds
trade much of their portfolio once or more a year, most ETFs only
trade a tiny fraction of their portfolio in order to keep up with
changes in the underlying index.



Hence a mutual fund with a Turnover Ratio of 100% (meaning that, on
average, 100% of the funds holdings are traded each year) will, on
average, only hold a position for a year, and will distribute the
majority of capital gains to shareholders every year, much of which
will be in the form of short term capital gains, which are typically
taxed at a higher rate than long term capital gains. In
contrast, an ETF with a Turnover Ratio of 10% will, on average, hold a
position for ten years. This allows time for significant
undistributed capital gains to build up, and when those capital gains
are distributed, they almost always come in the form of long term
capital gains, which are usually taxed at a lower rate.



Who Needs to Worry About Tax
Efficiency, and Who Doesn't




Not all investors need be concerned about the tax
efficiency. Most obviously, investors who are investing in
a non-taxable account, such as an IRA and a 401(k). Tax exempt
institutions, such as charities, also need not worry about tax
efficiency. Finally, people in lower tax brackets need be less
concerned than those with high incomes, since the taxes on capital
gains distributions will be lower for them.



Undistributed Gains



Most renewable energy stocks are down significantly over the last three
years (roughly the same period as the track record of most of the
ETFs.) This means that, at least in the short term, many mutual
funds and ETFs will not have any capital gains distributions no matter
how well they perform, because previous year's capital losses will be
available to offset future gains. (While funds are required to
distribute realized capital gains, they have no way of distributing
realized capital losses, except for offsetting future gains.)



The Numbers



Morningstar has data on most fund's tax efficiency, including
adjusted returns assuming distributions are taxable, and potential
capital gains exposure (undistributed capital gains as a percentage of
net assets.) The following two tables and charts compare the ETF
and mutual fund three year returns on both tax adjusted and unadjusted
basis, along with potential capital gains exposure and fund
turnovers. Where possible, I used no-load mutual fund shares
because I feel they are more comparable to ETFs than load shares,
despite the fact that long term mutual fund buyers should generally
prefer load shares because of their lower annual expense ratios.






















































ETF 3yr pretax

total return

3yr tax adj

total return

Potential Cap

Gains Exposure

Turnover

QCLN




-43.34% -43.34% -52% 40%
PZD




-28.31% -28.38% -40% 31%
PBD




-56.22% -56.28% -98% 62%
GEX




-64.96% -65.03% -198% 50%
PBW




-59.90% -59.90% -234% 42%
ICLN




insufficient track record

-64%








































































Mutual Fund

3yr pretax

total return
3yr tax adj

total return
Potential Cap


Gains Exposure
Turnover
WGGFX




-38.09% -38.76% -46% 93%
NALFX




-36.19% -39.81% -25.00% 34%
CGACX -61.73% -61.73% -110% 61%
AECOX




-48.72% -51.72% -68% 39%
GAAEX

-66.23%

-67.52%

-241%

47%

WRMSX




-42.70% -42.88% -260% 114%
SRICX




15.43% 12.65% 0.60% 190%
ALTEX




-33.01% -33.01% -22.18% 41%



etf tax chart.png


mutual fund tax chart.png



As you can see from the tables, the ETFs have indeed been more
tax-efficient than the mutual funds, but the differences are so
marginal that they are difficult to detect in the charts.



More striking are the extremely large negative
capital gains exposures of many mutual funds and ETFs. The DWS
Climate
Change
Fund
(WRMSX)
, Guinness
Atkinson Alternative Energy Fund (GAAEX),
Van
Eck
Global Alternative Energy Fund (GEX)
, and the PowerShares
Clean
Energy (PBW)
all have undistributed capital losses equal to
multiples of the funds' current values (260%, 241%, 234%, and
198%).
That means that all the holdings in each fund's portfolio could be sold
for three or more times their current value and the funds would still
not have
to distribute any capital gains. Tax efficiency will remain
a moot point for years to come, at least for these four funds, as well
as for the PowerShares
Global
Clean Energy Portfolio (PBD)
and the Calvert
Global Alternative Energy Fund (CGACX)
.



The only fund for which I can really call tax efficiency a concern is
the Gabelli
SRI
Green Fund (SRICX)
. Why does the Gabelli fund stand out
as having a "problem" with tax efficiency? Because the Gabelli
fund
actually managed to turn a decent profit over the last three
years, while their clean energy mutual fund and especially ETF rivals
lost money hand
over fist
. I recently interviewed
John
Segrich, CFA, the lead fund manager at the Gabelli SRI Green fund
,
and he explained in part how they did it.



When it's a sign you're making money, tax inefficiency seems like a
good "problem" to have.



Turnover



It's also worth noting the fairly high Turnover ratios of all of the
ETFs, ranging from 30% to over 60%. That means that, on average,
the
holdings of Clean energy ETFs trade once every 2-3 years, which is not
enough time to build up substantial unrealized capital gains, although
the majority of capital gains distributions are likely to be in the
form of long term capital gains. In fact, the New
Alternatives
FD Inc (NALFX)
has a lower turnover ratio than all but
one of the clean energy ETFs.



Even when we return to an environment where most of these funds are
habitually making gains, and the negative capital gains exposures of
many of the funds are exhausted, these ETFs will have less of an
advantage in tax efficiency over the clean energy mutual funds than
broad market ETFs have over their peers, unless the ETF turnover ratios
fall faster than those of the mutual funds.



Conclusion



While Clean
Energy
ETFs
are a little bit more tax efficient than Clean
Energy
Mutual Funds
, the difference is not currently significant.
Clean
Energy is a very young sector with high volatility and quickly changing
industry structure. The changeable nature of the clean energy
landscape means that a lot of the usual rules do not apply. Not
only do active
managers
have a significant advantage over passively managed funds like
ETFs
, but passive clean energy funds also have much less
significant
tax advantages than passive broad market funds.



DISCLOSURE: No Positions. GAAEX is an
advertiser on AltEnergyStocks.com.


DISCLAIMER: The information and
trades provided here are for informational purposes only and are not a
solicitation to buy or sell any of these securities. Investing involves
substantial risk and you should evaluate your own risk levels before
you make any investment. Past results are not an indication of future
performance. Please take the time to read the
full disclaimer
here
.

Solar Tracer at the Penny Stock Arcade

Dana Blankenhorn



Look up Solar Tracer Corp. on Google and you'll be asked if you
really mean “solar tracker,” which sends you to a company called Opel Solar (OPL.V),
which makes solar concentrators.


Sometimes you should listen to your Google.


But I wanted to learn about Solar Tracer, which says it was bought this weekend by Sector 10 (SECI.OB), a
failing maker of emergency
response equipment
.


That last is not hyperbole – Sector 10 hasn't brought in any revenue
for over a year. It's a stock market trick old as
time, a shell buying an operating company so the latter can go public
at low cost.


But why? Why would Solar Tracer want to go public sub rosa? (Full
disclosure. I own no penny stocks. I did have some AIG once, before
that went into penny territory. I bought in at $60. If you are looking
for investment advice, move along.)


Turns out Solar Tracer is run by the Tedrow brothers of Florida. CEO
Christian is a writer, CFO Tyler a venture capitalist. The two have
been working on a thriller called the Judgement
Trilogy
– they write under the name Thomas
Tedrow
.


Tyler is managing partner
of HART Capital
Management
in Orlando, which describes itself as “a new kind of
venture capital firm.” Among its listed investments is ChinaPharmaHub,
for which Christian (left) sits on the business
advisory board
. ChinaPharma says it is interested in identifying
and bringing to market interesting drugs from China.


Now that you know something about the management, what would you be
buying, if you were interested in buying into this? Mainly Eugene
Augustin
, an expert on microwave
antennas
last seen in July selling his solar antenna expertise to Lady Bug Resource Group,
a Kirkland, Washington based outfit that apparently held the URL
Newsolartec as a subsidiary. Christian Tedrow was listed as the owner
of that URL until last week, when it expired.


After buying Augustin's expertise, in November, LadyBug named a
Thomas F. Krucker its new CEO. Krucker is a former Toyota executive.
Inside of a month Krucker bought MAG International, which said it was developing electric off-road vehicles (its Web site was
recently disabled.


So what's going on?


Near as I can determine the Tedrows needed a new vehicle after
LadyBug flew away. That's what Sector 10 is, a company that owns what
was NewSolarTec but is now called Solar Tracer.


Back when the LadyBug deal got done, Solar Thermal Magazine ran a piece on the Tedrows, and New Solar. In
that piece Christian Tedrow described the Solar Tracer as a solar concentrator that can heat water into
steam for generating electricity.


There's nothing new here. Solar concentrators are old tech. There
are breakthroughs going on here but little evidence Mr. Augustin has
one.


Still, shares in Sector 10 doubled in value, to 1.8 cents per share , on the day after the
Tedrow news broke. OTC Picks featured the company
without knowing they were out of the emergency response business. Their
story paints the company as an emergency preparedness play.


I'm guessing this is another ride on the penny stock arcade that's
going to end in tears.


But it would be so much fun to be proven wrong.


Disclosure: None


Dana
Blankenhorn
first
covered the energy industries in 1978 with the
Houston Business Journal. He returned last month after a short 29 year
hiatus because it's the best business story of our time. In between he
covered PCs, the Internet, e-commerce, open source, the Internet of
Things and Moore's Law. It's the application of the last to harvesting
the energy all around us he's most excited about. He lives in Atlanta.

Dividend-Paying Energy Efficiency Stocks

Tom Konrad CFA



Clean energy investing is not on for
growth investors, traders, and speculators. Conservative income
investors can invest in green companies as well, and dividend paying
energy efficiency stocks deserve pride of place in their portfolios.




In my clean energy
investing workshops
, I tell attendees that investing in clean
energy stocks does not have to be riskier than investing in any other
sector. The key to investing in clean energy with a low risk
profile is the same as low risk investing in any other sector: find
stable, profitable companies selling at reasonable valuations.



Identifying stable, profitable companies is not always easy. Even
if a company is profitable today, rising competition, the falling price
of alternatives, or changing technology can rapidly undermine business
models and profits. A rapidly changing legal, regulatory, and
cultural landscape further complicates the search. All of
these factors apply in clean energy, but much more in rapidly evolving
technology and incentive driven sectors such as solar PV and cellulosic
ethanol than in more staid sectors such as energy efficiency and
conservation.



The Economics of Energy Efficiency



Energy
efficiency
stocks
lack the sex appeal of solar
stocks
or smart
grid
stocks
, but that very dowdiness makes them much more stable
than most other alternative energy sectors. Further, unlike most
renewable energy, much energy efficiency makes economic sense without
incentives, so the companies are less dependent on the government to
drive sales. If Google
(GOOG)
had chosen to make energy efficiency cheaper than coal
("EE<C"), rather than renewable
energy
cheaper than coal (RE<C)
they'd have been done before
they started.



Dividends

One reason firms pay dividends is because it's a way to signal to
investors that management is confident about their ability to pay that
level of dividend far into the future. Dividend cuts are
embarrassing to management, and even worse for a company's stock price,
so companies that pay dividends tend to believe that they will be able
to remain profitable and keep on paying that dividend.



Safer Clean Energy Stocks



Given this, dividend paying energy efficiency stocks are a great place
to start when looking for relatively stable clean energy
investments. The list that follows is simply a result of me going
through our
list of energy efficiency stocks
and pulling out the ones that pay
a dividend. I plan to look more deeply into many of these
companies in future articles.












































































Company
(Ticker)

Yield*

notes /
articles

Aixtron AG
(AIXG)
0.3%

LEDs

Cabot Corp
(CBT)
1.8%

green building

Eaga PLC
(EAGA.L)
5.0%**

UK residential energy efficiency

General
Electric
(GE)
2.8%

A little of everything

Honeywell
(HON)
2.2%

HVAC, building controls

Johnson
Controls
(JCI)
1.6%

Building controls

Kingspan
Group, PLC (KGSPF.PK)
0.6%**

Green Building

Linear
Technology Corp. (LLTC)
2.7%

Efficient power conversion

Neo-Neon
Holdings (1868.hk)
1.5%**

LEDs

PFB
Corporation (PFB.TO)
5.0%

Green
Building
/
PFB
Corporation
Philips
(PHG)
2.5%

Lighting

Power
Integrations
(POWI)
0.5%

Power
conversion / Power Integrations


Waterfurance
Renewable
Energy (WFI.TO)
3.5%

Geothermal
Heat
Pumps





*The dividend rates were as of January 28, 2010, and may have changed
due to changes in the stock price or dividend policy since then.



**These London and Hong Kong listed companies follow the European
practice
of declaring a final and interim dividend that varies much more than
the typical US-based dividend, so the dividend may be less of an
indicator of earnings stability.



If you know of any dividend paying efficiency stocks I've missed,
please let me know in a comment.



DISCLOSURE: Long
PFB.TO, WFI.TO

DISCLAIMER: The information and
trades provided here and in the comments are for informational purposes
only and are not a solicitation to buy or sell any of these securities.
Investing involves substantial risk and you should evaluate your own
risk levels before you make any investment. Past results are not an
indication of future performance. Please take the time to read the full disclaimer
here.

Why I Believe in Thin Film

Dana Blankenhorn


When most people think of solar energy, they see flat panels on a
roof.


They don't think about thin film. They don't see it.


This is one of the many advantages of CIGS and other thin
film solar technologies
. So what if its efficiency is half that of
a panel? It conforms to the shape of the place where it lays.


Thin film can also be productized in ways no panel can. It can be
turned into something retailers can sell or bloggers will drool over. Try doing that with a panel.


With the exception of the 800-pound Gorilla First
Solar Inc (FSLR)
, it's true
that we're still measuring the annual supply from these manufacturers
in megawatts, figures utility companies can't (and often don't want to)
hear, except as window-dressing or a source of subsidies.
But changing that equation is as simple as getting the right product
into mass production. (Skeptics should listen again to the words of
former DEC CEO Ken Olsen. 'There is
no reason for any individual to have a computer in his home
.')


Personally I think I've seen the future and it's thin.


Copper indium gallium (di)selenide is also not the only possible formula for a thin film. Sharp
(SHCAY.PK)
is looking at amorphous silicon, despite Applied
Materials' (AMAT)
failure with it.
Maybe they will succeed, and maybe they'll fail too. The search for new
materials will go on. (Like the man told Dustin Hoffman in The
Graduate, 'One word. Plastics.')


There is a ton of competition in this space. Analysts at Greentech
Media recently wrote a list of just CIGS thin film companies for a
story on one of them. Want to hear it? Solar Frontier, Q-Cells
(QCLSF.PK)
, Solyndra,
SoloPower, MiaSolé, Wuerth Solar, Stion, GSP, Nanosolar. They can't all be wrong, can they?


And is that an exhaustive list? Far from it. Venture capitalists are
funding more all the time, often on the promise of greater efficiency.
While analysts at Greentech Media are very positive about companies
like AQT Solar
that can get into production fast and cheap, or SoloPower, with its claims of UL Labs approval,
it's clear to me that this is the first mile of a corporate marathon.


Put it this way. How many PC makers from the late 1970s can you
name? (Other than Apple.) In terms of this market, I don't even think
we're at 1977 yet.


There are just so many directions in which improvement can happen
with thin films. Efficiency, production cost, durability, materials
cost, etc. It's true that the total power being supplied by CIGS right
now looks pathetic next to standard panels, but the advantages are just
too obvious.


That's why companies like Dow Chemical and (now) Intel
are putting cash into the space. Dow likes the idea of solar systems
that go on with the roof, that in fact are the roof. Intel likes Sulfurcell, a German company that claims (as
others do) that thin films can be as efficient as panels.


The way to look at this is not through the eyes of current
production, or short-term profits. It's about the technologies behind
the curtain, the new materials and techniques that can get that to
market. A good venture capitalist will invest in 10 plays knowing only
three will ever bring him any return, but in hopes that 1 of those
three will be huge. That's the right attitude to have.


What does it mean when every roof, every wall, every tent
and bleach blanket can be delivering solar power to its owner?
Remember, electronics and many electrical devices are requiring
less-and-less power every year.


More to the point, what does it mean to an industry that depends on
long-term contracts for construction of panel systems if the wall can
deliver just as much power for the cost of wallpapering? Or painting?
That's a silly question today, but one that the people in this business
should probably start thinking about.


Dana
Blankenhorn
first
covered the energy industries in 1978 with the
Houston Business Journal. He returned last month after a short 29 year
hiatus because it's the best business story of our time. In between he
covered PCs, the Internet, e-commerce, open source, the Internet of
Things and Moore's Law. It's the application of the last to harvesting
the energy all around us he's most excited about. He lives in Atlanta.

How to SSH into your XenServer from Mac and Windows



Sometimes it comes in handy to manage your XenServer via command line. Maybe you just want to perform some of the xsconsole functions. Here are some options:



From a Mac:



1. Navigate to Applications > Utilities > Terminal

2. use the ssh command to get to your XenServer. lets try an example where we are connecting with teh default root account on a host called xenserver-phx01 and password is MyPassword1



ssh -l root xenserver-phx01


You can aso specify a port if you were to change the default ssh port from the default of 22



ssh -l root xenserver-phx01 -p 8080





Here is a screen shot of the mac terminal accessing a XenServer







of course you can also run the xsconsole to get the Text UI:







The same commands apply to a connection from a linux machine.




Here are some screen shots from a windows machine using putty.










If you have many machines to administer among difference connection types Felix Deimel from mRemote.org (merged with VisionApp) has a cool tool called mRemote that you can use as well.







You can use the configuration console to enter the address, port username etc for connection.








Happy SSH'ing!

rat